Model Risk and Uncertainty in the Financial World
Model Risk and Uncertainty in the Financial World
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Model Risk and Uncertainty in the Financial World is a comprehensive work that addresses the art and science of building and managing financial models with an appreciation of the risks and uncertainties that lie within. Soulellis and Ghose highlight how financial models can be laden with uncertainty, prone to failure, and capable of sparking crises when their risks are ignored. They distil foundational concepts in economics, statistics and machine learning into an intuitive accessible read for model builders and users, emphasising a useful distinction between risk and uncertainty, and the importance of managing them differently.
The authors’ narrative blends history, theory, and practice to show how model risk has affected markets — from Black Monday to the global financial crisis, from COVID-19 to Silicon Valley Bank. Drawing on their deep professional experience, they guide readers through key themes: the limits of probability, the psychology of risk, specification and operations failures, and how the past informs lessons for the future. They argue that uncertainty can never be eliminated — but it can be managed through the application of various measurement and estimation methods as well as a willingness to acknowledge the unknown.
This book equips bankers, regulators, quants, and policymakers with a sharper awareness of model risk and a toolkit for living with uncertainty. Model Risk and Uncertainty in the Financial World is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand where financial modelling has been — and where it’s going next.
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About the Author
Devajyoti Ghose is co-founder and managing
director at Kah Capital Management, a mortgage investment firm. In 2018, he retired
from Freddie Mac, where he had been Treasurer, a member of the management
committee and Senior Vice President of models and portfolio analytics in its
capital markets division. He has a PhD in economics from the University of
California at San Diego, where he specialised in econometrics, with Nobel
Laureates Sir Clive Granger and Robert Engle as his advisors. He has taught economics
at the University of Arizona, Tucson and The University of New South Wales,
Sydney.
George Soulellis formerly served as the enterprise
model risk officer for Freddie Mac, with overall responsibility for model risk management
in the firm. Prior to that, he served as managing director, risk analytics for
Barclays Bank in the UK, overseeing risk model development and analytics. He
has also held leadership positions in the risk management/modelling/analytics
space at Citigroup, General Electric and JPMorgan Chase. He holds a BSc in
statistics from Concordia University and an MBA in artificial intelligence from
the University of Cumbria. He has also undertaken studies in statistics at
Columbia University and holds a MicroMasters in data science and specialisation
in mathematics for machine learning from the University of California at San
Diego and Imperial College London, respectively. His interests primarily lie in
model uncertainty measurement, model risk under conditions of extrapolation,
machine learning methods and modelling for capital requirements.
Table of contents
PART I FOUNDATIONS
1 The evolution of models
2 The foundations of risk and
uncertainty
3 Uncertainty: a taxonomy
4 Model risk and uncertainty: a
survey of the institutional landscape
5 Model specification risk and
uncertainty
6 Model operation risk and
uncertainty
PART II THE MODEL BUILDER’S
CANVAS
7 Data, models and their purpose
8 Artificial intelligence in
finance: a synthesis of human and machine
9 A deeper dive into machine
learning methods: their opportunities, limitations, risks and uncertainties
PART III MEASUREMENT,
APPLICATIONS AND USES
10 Measurement of risk and
estimation of uncertainty in prediction models
11 Using models under risk and
uncertainty
12 When models fail
Epilogue: models and the future
Index
A delightful read that drives home the importance of understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty when modelling financial markets. It combines both theoretical insights with a practical understanding of the banking (Basel) oversight framework. A great read for undergraduate business majors, MBAs and those just starting out in finance.
Model Risk and Uncertainty in the Financial World tackles the complex topic of model risk with impressive clarity and rigour. The authors trace an entertaining account of models, risk and uncertainty from Babylonian numerical methods to modern day gradient boosting techniques. Replete with pragmatic advice, the book should be very accessible to all risk professionals and financial regulators.
Ghose and Soullelis’s Model Risk and Uncertainty in the Financial World is a joy to read. In plain language, interspersed with real and often humorous examples, these authors take the reader on a journey through the past, present and future of financial models. They focus on the challenges and nuances of accounting for risk and uncertainty when predicting the behaviour of individuals, institutions, and markets. Experts and novices alike will come away with a new appreciation for the art and science of financial modelling.
Models drive decisions in finance: when they fail, the consequences are real. This book shows why, with clear examples and practical tools. It connects history, practice, and today’s AI-driven risks. At Risk Span, I see these challenges every day. Practitioners will find this book invaluable.
A timely and essential contribution to the study and practice of financial risk, this book offers the most comprehensive treatment of risk and uncertainty I have seen. Its insights on AI show how machine learning is reshaping financial decision-making while confronting interpretability and risk governance challenges. The authors’ blend of research and practical experience delivers a clear framework for managing model risk, making this an invaluable guide for academics, students, and practitioners alike. By combining cutting-edge insights with actionable frameworks for managing risk and uncertainty this book is an indispensable guide to the finance profession.